Title: It comes in peace? AI’s promise and peril for women, peace and security Author: Paola […]
Title: La Inteligencia Artificial: ¿Al Servicio de la Paz? Author: Håvard Hegre Publication Date: November 2025 Publisher: […]
A new study, co-authored by experts including VIEWS researchers Håvard Hegre and Debarati Guha-Sapir, presents the first independent, survey-based estimate of war-related mortality in Gaza.
The study estimates that 75,200 people were killed by violence in the Gaza Strip (95% CI: 63,600–86,800) between 7 October 2023 and 5 January 2025, more than half of which were women, children, and elderly.
Title: The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, With Uncertainty […]
Title: Societies at risk: the correlation between intensity of armed conflict and child health during the […]
Title: Wolves in Sheep’s Clothing: Community Meetings and Voter Control in Non-Democracies Author: Thorsten Rogall Year: […]
Title: Bridging Gaps in Water Governance: Addressing Conflict and Climate Challenges Authors: Stefan Döring Year: 2025 […]
Title: Conflict Worsens the Impact of Flood on Food Insecurity: Evidence from the Nargis Cyclone in […]
Abstract This study advances the field of conflict forecasting by using text-based actor embeddings with transformer […]
Abstract Over the past decade, the field of conflict forecasting has undergone a remarkable metamorphosis, transforming […]
Abstract: Despite unprecedented access to data, resources, and wealth, the world faces an escalating wave of […]
The article reviews the literature on how armed conflicts adversely affect human development across nine dimensions, emphasizing the need for a multidisciplinary approach. It highlights gaps in research and calls for systematic empirical testing to better understand the interconnections between conflict impacts, ultimately aiming to inform policies that mitigate war's adverse effects.
The study by Randahl et al. develops machine-learning models to forecast electoral violence globally, addressing its threat to the legitimacy and fairness of electoral outcomes. By analyzing economic indicators, historical violence, and political instability, the models predict violence risk for 2024-2025 with high accuracy, aiding in effective prevention strategies for at-risk elections.
Title: “Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict” Authors: David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams, Håvard […]
Title: “This is not normal! (Re-) Evaluating the lower n guidelines for regression analysis” Authors: David […]
Title: “Forecasting Densities of Fatalities from State-based Conflicts using Observed Markov Models” Authors: David Randahl, Johan […]
Title: “When Sensitivity Bias Varies Across Subgroups: The Impact of Non-uniform Polarity in List Experiments” Authors: […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Luca Macis, Marco […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Alexandra Málaga, Hannes […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Author: David Muchlinski and […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Author: Vito D’Orazio
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: David Randahl and […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Simon Drauz and […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Thomas Schincariol, […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Kristian Skrede […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Tobias Bodentien […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Julian Walterskirchen, […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Cornelius Fritz, […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Author: Patrick T. […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Daniel Mittermaier, […]
Authors: Elena Raffetti, Malin Ahrne, Stefan Döring, Ana Hagström, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Gabriele Messori, Maria Rusca, and […]
What is the relationship between water management, sustainable development, and peacebuilding? Find out more in this […]
Title: “Could vote buying be socially desirable? Exploratory analyses of a ‘failed’ list experiment” Authors: Sophia […]
Title: “Predicting armed conflict using protest data” Authors: Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Håvard Hegre, and Maxine Leis […]
Title: Spatial patterns of communal violence in sub-Saharan Africa Authors: Stefan Döring and Katariina Mustasilta Year: 2023 […]
Title: Drought exposure decreases altruism with salient group identities as key moderator Authors: Stefan Döring and Jonathan […]
The Expert Group for Aid Studies have published a Development Dissertation Brief (DDB) on the role […]
Title: The ‘conflict trap’ reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways Authors: Petrova, Kristina; Gudlaug […]
This morning marked the launch of the synthesis report “Moving from Reaction to Action: Anticipating Vulnerability […]
The special issue from our 2020 prediction competition is now available as International Interactions Volume 48, […]
Presented at the “State of the science of “political futures”: Exploring how to improve the representation […]
We are thrilled to announce the release of a new prediction model: the ‘fatalities’ model! The […]
The article from the prediction competition we hosted in the fall of 2020 is now available. The […]
Publication from the ViEWS-ESCWA collaboration. Title: Understanding the potential linkages between climate change and conflict in […]
Report from ViEWS and the Sahel Predictive Analytics Project, in support of the United Nations Integrated […]
ViEWS generates high-risk alerts for countries with a recent history of fatal political violence. By October […]
ViEWS generates high-risk alerts for countries with a recent history of fatal political violence. By August […]
With the conflict threshold increased from at least 1 to a minimum of 25 fatalities, forecasted […]