red and blue light streaks
by Angelica
June 28, 2024

“Predicting Fatalities with Pre-trained Temporal Transformers: A Time Series Regression Approach”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Luca Macis, Marco […]
0
read more
pile of newspapers
by Angelica
June 28, 2024

“Predicting fatalities using newspaper text”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Alexandra Málaga, Hannes […]
0
read more
a close up of a computer screen with a lot of text on it
by Angelica
June 28, 2024

“A Zero-Inflated Poisson Generalized Additive Model for Forecasting Conflict Fatalities”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Author: David Muchlinski and […]
0
read more
worm's eye-view photography of ceiling
by Angelica
June 28, 2024

“Probabilistic Conflict Forecasting with Automated Machine Learning”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Author: Vito D’Orazio
0
read more
Colorful software or web code on a computer monitor
by Angelica
June 28, 2024

“Forecasting fatalities from state based conflicts using Markov models”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: David Randahl and […]
0
read more
closeup photo of turned-on blue and white laptop computer
by Angelica
June 28, 2024

Probabilistic Forecasting of Conflict Fatalities: Historical Quantiles vs. Bayesian Penalized Regression

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Simon Drauz and […]
0
read more
selective focus photography of graph
by Angelica
June 28, 2024

“Temporal patterns in conflict prediction: An improved shape-based approach”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Thomas Schincariol, […]
0
read more
forest trees
by Angelica
June 28, 2024

“Random Forest Predictions with Dyad Features”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Kristian Skrede […]
0
read more
person facing computer desktop
by Angelica
June 28, 2024

Forecasting Monthly Fatalities via a Negative Binomial Distribution and Comparison with a Hurdle Model and Neural Networks

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Tobias Bodentien […]
0
read more
selective focus photo of brown and blue hourglass on stones
by Angelica
June 27, 2024

“Taking time seriously: Predicting conflict fatalities using temporal fusion transformers”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Julian Walterskirchen, […]
0
read more
bokeh photography of open book
by Angelica
June 27, 2024

“Predicting uncertainty in stages: Using a semiparametric hierarchical hurdle model for predicting distributions of conflict fatalities”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Cornelius Fritz, […]
0
read more
a remote control sitting on top of a table
by Angelica
June 27, 2024

“Bayesian Density Forecasts for VIEWS”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Author: Patrick T. […]
0
read more
photography of tall trees at daytime
by Angelica
June 27, 2024

“Forests of UncertainT(r)ees: Using tree-based ensembles to estimate probability distributions of future conflict”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Daniel Mittermaier, […]
0
read more