This challenge is hosted and managed by the Canadian DND/CAF, with support from VIEWS. Questions are kindly directed to IDEaSContests.IDEeSConcours@forces.gc.ca.
The Canadian Department of National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces (DND/CAF) invite research teams and innovators across the globe to take on the new Fast Forward – Forecasting Global Emerging Threats prediction challenge. Offered through the Innovation for Defence Excellence and Security (IDEaS) program, it calls for expert teams to harness the power of publicly available data, statistical methods, and machine learning, to build forecasting models that can provide forecasts for fatalities in future armed conflicts, accompanied by machine-generated explanations of how the models work.
Up to ten qualifying teams will be invited to proceed in the contest following the application deadline on 2 December 2024. They will receive a $25,000 development grant to create their models.
Training data provided by VIEWS
The comprehensive input dataset that informs the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) will serve as the training and calibration dataset for the participants’ models. It is comprised by spatially and temporally granular data from trusted open data providers, such as UCDP, V-DEM, and the World Bank (WDI). Adapted to the country-month and PRIO-GRID-month levels of analysis, it captures themes ranging from conflict history to development and democracy indices, social and natural geography, climate indices, conflict-related topics in news media, and much more.
Awards for the top three teams
Based on the performance of their respective predictions, and the intuitive documentation of their final models, the top three teams will be awarded prizes of up to $150 000. Their contributions will also help advance the use of data-driven forecasting methods by Canada’s Defense Team:
“The longer-term goal is to integrate these models into methods and tools aimed at helping the Canadian Defence Team intelligence analysts to perform data-driven forecasting tasks while addressing the challenges of trust and accountability for analysts leveraging these novel forms of anticipatory intelligence. The aim will be to compare and eventually adopt systems that can help analysts to rapidly organize and exploit data from publicly available and private sources.” (canada.ca)
Eligibility
Please note that applicants must be legal entities duly incorporated and validly existing in Canada, including:
- Canadian universities and educational institutions chartered in Canada.
- Incorporated Canadian not-for-profit organizations or associations.
- Incorporated Canadian for-profit companies, organizations, or associations.
- Provincial/territorial, or municipal government organizations. Federal and provincial crown corporations are not eligible for funding.
Applying entities can however form a group, cluster, or consortium that includes international collaborators.
Application procedure
The deadline to apply is 2 December 2024.
For instructions on how to apply, please email the IDEaS Contests Team: IDEaSContests.IDEeSConcours@forces.gc.ca.
An information session for those who request an application package will be held on November 15th.