A new study, co-authored by experts including VIEWS researchers Håvard Hegre and Debarati Guha-Sapir, presents the first independent, survey-based estimate of war-related mortality in Gaza.

The study estimates that 75,200 people were killed by violence in the Gaza Strip (95% CI: 63,600–86,800) between 7 October 2023 and 5 January 2025, more than half of which were women, children, and elderly.

In comparison, official figures from the Gaza Ministry of Health (GMoH) report approximately 45,650 violent deaths during the same period. This is around 39% lower than the study’s central estimate and falls below the lower bound of its confidence interval.

The findings are based on the Gaza Mortality Survey (GMS), a large-scale household survey now available as a preprint on medRxiv. The study has drawn international attention and was recently highlighted in Swedish news outlet SVT Nyheter. Hegre was also interviewed for a news piece by Norwegian NRK and a TV segment in Norwegian TV2. The latter aired on August 23 (available behind a paywall).

Read the Gaza study (medRxiv): https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.06.19.25329797v3

Co–authors of the study: Mike Spagat, Jon Pedersen, Khalil Shikaki, Michael Robbins, Eran Bendavid, Håvard Hegre, and Debarati Guha–Sapir.