Around the world – in both mature and young democracies – elections continue to be a flash point for violence. A research team led by Dr. David Randahl, Post-Doc for VIEWS and the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University, recently released a model for forecasting violence related to elections. The model has potential to help inform the work to protect and promote democracy and electoral integrity.

In the latest episode of the podcast Researching Peace, Dr. David Randahl and Prof. Hanne Fjelde explore how the model works, what the predictions look like for the coming years, how well the model performs, and what the potential and limitations of their model are as a tool for early warning and early action.

The model design and research behind the new model is documented in a technical report authored by David Randahl, Maxine Leis, Tim Gåsste, Hanne Fjelde, Håvard Hegre, Staffan I. Lindberg, and Steven Wilson.

In collaboration with Kofi Annan Foundation, the model has also been used to launch a new predictive system for electoral violence – the Electoral Vulnerability Index, currently containing the forecasts for 2024-2025.

Learn more in episode #31 of the Researching Peace podcast, produced by the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University.