Washington, D.C., USA – Senior Researcher Simon Polichinel von der Maase spoke at a high-level workshop on “Strengthening Early Warning for Genocide and Mass Atrocity Prevention: Reach, Use, and Future Directions”, held on September 18–19, 2025, at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, D.C. The event marked the 10th anniversary of the Early Warning Project and was convened by the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide.
As part of the session “Looking Ahead – Innovations and Future Directions”, Simon delivered opening remarks exploring how early warning systems must evolve to meet future challenges. Drawing on analogies from fire prevention, oceanography, and navigation, he outlined three key shifts needed in the field:
- From Data to Intelligence: Much like identifying dry forests versus detecting who’s holding the matches, future models must prioritize data that reveals actors’ private preferences and incentives, not just background risk.
- From Surface Events to Deep Dynamics: Atrocities are the visible waves, but real insight comes from modeling the unseen currents beneath. Bespoke deep learning models are needed to understand the complex pathways of escalation and diffusion.
- From Maps to Navigation: Risk mapping is no longer sufficient; the field must move toward systems that provide clear, actionable guidance – a GPS for decision-makers navigating complex crises.
“True transparency isn’t about simplicity; it’s about giving users the right information to trust and act. A car’s engineering is opaque, but its dashboard tells you exactly what you need to know to get where you’re going. That’s the model for next-generation early warning,” Simon noted.
The invitation-only workshop gathered leading scholars and policymakers to reflect on progress over the past decade and chart the strategic direction for the next generation of early warning tools and practices.