New predictions from Sept-Oct 2023

Late December, we detected a bug related to handling of missing data in one of the Markov Models (constituent models specialising in conflict onset) informing the VIEWS forecasts. The issue primarily concerned low-risk island nations with no or minimal risk of impending conflict in coming months and thus had minimal implications for our predictions for these countries. One notable exception was however detected: predictions for the Israel – Palestine conflict. To transparently account for the issue above, we have created updated versions of our prediction datasets from September and October 2023, soon available as fatalities002_2023_09_t02 and fatalities002_2023_10_t02 in the VIEWS API. The original datasets remain accessible for comparison.

Launch of ‘Known Issues’ record

In relation to detecting the issue above, we have launched a user-oriented Known Issues page in our Outreach GitHub repository, where we will continue to document any future bugs in model code, issues derived from input data, and/or other model limitations that may be particularly relevant for stakeholders using our data in work across the triple nexus of peace, development, and humanitarian assistance.

Questions? Please contact views@pcr.uu.se.