red and blue light streaks
by Angelica
June 28, 2024

“Predicting Fatalities with Pre-trained Temporal Transformers: A Time Series Regression Approach”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Luca Macis, Marco […]
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by Angelica
June 28, 2024

VIEWS at the Humanitarian Data Forum

VIEWS Director Håvard Hegre presented during the first-ever Humanitarian Data Forum in The Hague from 12-14 June 2024. […]
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by Angelica
June 28, 2024

Climate, Health and Security with Stefan Döring

Between June 25th and 28th, Visby and the Almedals Week invites anyone to participate in thousands […]
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pile of newspapers
by Angelica
June 28, 2024

“Predicting fatalities using newspaper text”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Alexandra Málaga, Hannes […]
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a close up of a computer screen with a lot of text on it
by Angelica
June 28, 2024

“A Zero-Inflated Poisson Generalized Additive Model for Forecasting Conflict Fatalities”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Author: David Muchlinski and […]
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worm's eye-view photography of ceiling
by Angelica
June 28, 2024

“Probabilistic Conflict Forecasting with Automated Machine Learning”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Author: Vito D’Orazio
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Colorful software or web code on a computer monitor
by Angelica
June 28, 2024

“Forecasting fatalities from state based conflicts using Markov models”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: David Randahl and […]
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closeup photo of turned-on blue and white laptop computer
by Angelica
June 28, 2024

Probabilistic Forecasting of Conflict Fatalities: Historical Quantiles vs. Bayesian Penalized Regression

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Simon Drauz and […]
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selective focus photography of graph
by Angelica
June 28, 2024

“Temporal patterns in conflict prediction: An improved shape-based approach”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Thomas Schincariol, […]
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forest trees
by Angelica
June 28, 2024

“Random Forest Predictions with Dyad Features”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Kristian Skrede […]
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person facing computer desktop
by Angelica
June 28, 2024

Forecasting Monthly Fatalities via a Negative Binomial Distribution and Comparison with a Hurdle Model and Neural Networks

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Tobias Bodentien […]
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selective focus photo of brown and blue hourglass on stones
by Angelica
June 27, 2024

“Taking time seriously: Predicting conflict fatalities using temporal fusion transformers”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Julian Walterskirchen, […]
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bokeh photography of open book
by Angelica
June 27, 2024

“Predicting uncertainty in stages: Using a semiparametric hierarchical hurdle model for predicting distributions of conflict fatalities”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Cornelius Fritz, […]
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a remote control sitting on top of a table
by Angelica
June 27, 2024

“Bayesian Density Forecasts for VIEWS”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Author: Patrick T. […]
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photography of tall trees at daytime
by Angelica
June 27, 2024

“Forests of UncertainT(r)ees: Using tree-based ensembles to estimate probability distributions of future conflict”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Daniel Mittermaier, […]
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Sofia Nordenving at NEPS
by Angelica
June 25, 2024

VIEWS at Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference

The 23rd Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference took place in Dublic from 17-19 June 2024. […]
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by Angelica
June 14, 2024

VIEWS at DEMSCORE Conference

Several team members attended the DEMSCORE conference in Gothenburg between 13-14 June 2024.
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