Publications
November 9, 2022

SPECIAL ISSUE | “Lessons from a Conflict Escalation Prediction Competition”

The special issue from our 2020 prediction competition is now available as International Interactions Volume 48, Issue 4 (2022).

The competition invited researchers from different fields (political science, statistics, peace and conflict research, computer science) to present innovative models to predict changes in armed conflict fatalities over time. Read the introduction, conclusion, or why not all the contributions in “Lessons from a Conflict Escalation Prediction Competition”. 

Journal: International Interactions
Volume: 48
Issue: 4 

 

Content:

Introduction:

Lessons from an escalation prediction competition
Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco & Michael Colaresi
Pages: 521-554
 

Articles:

Forecasting conflict using a diverse machine-learning ensemble: Ensemble averaging with multiple tree-based algorithms and variance promoting data configurations
Felix Ettensperger
Pages: 555-578
 
Using past violence and current news to predict changes in violence
Hannes Mueller & Christopher Rauh
Pages: 579-596
 
A shape-based approach to conflict forecasting
Thomas Chadefaux
Pages: 633-648
 
Forecasting change in conflict fatalities with dynamic elastic net
Fulvio Attinà, Marcello Carammia & Stefano M. Iacus
Pages: 649-677
 
Click, click boom: Using Wikipedia data to predict changes in battle-related deaths
Christian Oswald & Daniel Ohrenhofer
Pages: 678-696
 
Challenging the status quo: Predicting violence with sparse decision-making data
Konstantin Bätz, Ann-Cathrin Klöckner & Gerald Schneider
Pages: 697-713
 
Forecasting conflict in Africa with automated machine learning systems
Vito D’Orazio & Yu Lin
Pages: 714-738
 
High resolution conflict forecasting with spatial convolutions and long short-term memory
Benjamin J. Radford
Pages: 739-758
 
Predicting political violence using a state-space model
Andreas Lindholm, Johannes Hendriks, Adrian Wills & Thomas B. Schön
Pages: 759-777
 
The role of governmental weapons procurements in forecasting monthly fatalities in intrastate conflicts: A semiparametric hierarchical hurdle model
Cornelius Fritz, Marius Mehrl, Paul W. Thurner & Göran Kauermann
Pages: 778-799
 
Conflict forecasting with event data and spatio-temporal graph convolutional networks
Patrick T. Brandt, Vito D’Orazio, Latifur Khan, Yi-Fan Li, Javier Osorio & Marcus Sianan
Pages: 800-822
 
Employing local peacekeeping data to forecast changes in violence
Lisa Hultman, Maxine Leis & Desirée Nilsson
Pages: 823-840
 
Predicting (de-)escalation of sub-national violence using gradient boosting: Does it work?
Jonas Vestby, Jürgen Brandsch, Vilde Bergstad Larsen, Peder Landsverk & Andreas Forø Tollefsen
Pages: 841-859
 

Conclusion:

United they stand: Findings from an escalation prediction competition
Paola Vesco, Håvard Hegre, Michael Colaresi, Remco Bastiaan Jansen, Adeline Lo, Gregor Reisch & Nils B. Weidmann
Pages: 860-896